¿Necesita México libre comercio con Estados Unidos?


Does Mexico need free trade with the United States?

https://doi.org/10.21670/ref.2210094

Autores/as

Palabras clave:

libre comercio, modelo de gravedad, comercio bilateral, reforma comercial, datos de panel

Resumen

Al libre comercio entre Estados Unidos y México se le atribuye haber desarrollado una de las relaciones bilaterales más grandes del mundo. Sin embargo, el comercio entre México y Estados Unidos ha sido significativo durante más de un siglo. Mostramos cómo aumentó el comercio bilateral independientemente del acuerdo que entró en vigor en 1994, y especificamos las otras razones por las que creció el comercio. Medimos los flujos comerciales desde la década de 1880 hasta el presente y estimamos un modelo de gravedad para el periodo 1948-2006. El modelo de gravedad muestra que las características fundamentales de México y Estados Unidos explican el volumen de comercio independientemente del acuerdo. El acuerdo redujo la incertidumbre, lo que probablemente tuvo un efecto positivo en los flujos comerciales. En el análisis realizado no se  estimó el impacto cuantitativo de la reducción de la incertidumbre, pero muestra que la proximidad y el tamaño del mercado fueron más significativos que el acuerdo comercial.

Abstract

Free trade between the United States and Mexico is credited with having developed one of the largest bilateral trading relationships in the world. Yet Mexico-United States trade has been significant for more than a century. Our objective is to show how bilateral trade increased independently of the trade agreement that took effect in 1994, and to specify the other reasons why trade grew. We measure trade flows from the 1880s to the present and estimate a gravity model for the period 1948-2006. The gravity model shows that the fundamental characteristics of Mexico and the United States explain the volume of trade independently of the trade agreement. The trade agreement reduced uncertainty which likely had a positive effect on trade flows. Our analysis does not estimate the quantitative impact of reduced uncertainty but shows that proximity and size of the market were more significant that the trade agreement.

Citas

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Publicado

2022-04-29

Número

Sección

Sección temática. Situación actual y perspectivas de la integración económica en la región fronteriza México-Estados Unidos
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Biografía del autor/a

James Gerber

Estadounidense. Doctor en economía por la University of California. Profesor emérito de economía en San Diego State University. Líneas de investigación: Relaciones económicas Estados Unidos-México. Publicación reciente: Gerber, J. (2019). A great deal of ruin: financial crises since 1929. Cambridge University Press; (2022). International Economics (8th ed.). Pearson.

Yang Liang

Chino. Doctorado en economía por la Syracuse University. Profesor asistente de economía en San Diego State University. Líneas de investigación: comercio internacional y mercados de trabajo. Publicación reciente: Liang, Y. (2021). Job creation and job destruction: the effect of trade shocks on U.S. manufacturing employment. The World Economy, 44(10), 2909-2949. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13111