The cross-border effect on gasoline demand in Baja California


El efecto de la frontera en la demanda de gasolina en Baja California


https://doi.org/10.21670/ref.2607185

Authors

Keywords:

gasoline demand, cross-border effect, gasoline tourism, autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL), Baja California

Abstract

This paper estimates gasoline demand in the border state of Baja California to determine the magnitude of the border effect through price elasticity relative to gasoline prices in California. A monthly database from January 1997 to December 2015 was used and the distributed lag autoregressive model was applied to estimate demand. It was found that, in the long run, gasoline demand in Baja California is approximately unitary with respect to the price in California. This confirms the importance of the cross-border effect on gasoline demand and provides evidence supporting fiscal policy towards this sector in that region.

Resumen

En este artículo se estimó la demanda de gasolina del estado fronterizo de Baja California para determinar la magnitud del efecto frontera a través de la elasticidad con respecto al precio de la gasolina de California. Se utilizó una base de datos mensual de enero de 1997 a diciembre de 2015 y se aplicó el modelo autorregresivo de rezagos distribuidos para estimar la demanda. Se encontró que en el largo plazo la demanda de gasolina en Baja California es aproximadamente unitaria en relación con el precio de la gasolina en California. Esto confirma la importancia del efecto frontera en la demanda de gasolina y ofrece evidencia que justifica la política fiscal hacia ese sector en esa región.

References

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Moshiri, S. (2020). Consumer responses to gasoline price and non-price policies. Energy Policy, 137, Artículo 111078. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.111078Ayala Gaytán, E. & Gutiérrez González, L. (2004). Distorsiones de la política de precios de la gasolina en la frontera norte de México. Comercio Exterior, 54, 704-711.

Banfi, S., Filippini, M. & Hunt, L. C. (2005). Fuel tourism in border regions: the case of Switzerland. Energy Economics, 27(5), 689-707. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2005.04.006 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2005.04.006

Becker, G. S. (1965, septiembre). A theory of the allocation of time. The Economic Journal, 75(299), 493-517. https://doi.org/10.2307/2228949 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2228949

Dahl, C. A. (2012). Measuring global gasoline and diesel price and income elasticities. Energy Policy, 41, 2-13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.11.055 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.11.055

Deaton, A. & Muellbauer, J. (1980). Economics and consumer behavior. Cambridge University press. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511805653

Fullerton, T. M., Jr, Muñoz Sapien, G., Barraza de Anda, M. P. & Domínguez Ruvalcaba, L. (2012). Dinámica del consumo de gasolina en Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua. Estudios Fronterizos, 13(26), 91-107. https://doi.org/10.21670/ref.2012.26.a04 DOI: https://doi.org/10.21670/ref.2012.26.a04

Ghoddusi, H., Morovati, M. & Rafizadeh, N. (2019). Foreign exchange shocks and gasoline consumption. Energy Economics, 84, 104472. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2019.08.005

Ghoddusi, H., Rafizadeh, N. & Rahmati, M. H. (2018). Price elasticity of gasoline smuggling: a semi-structural estimation approach. Energy Economics, 71, 171-185. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.02.008 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.02.008

Haro López, R. A. & Ibarrola Pérez, J. L. (1999). Cálculo de la elasticidad precio de la demanda de gasolina en la zona fronteriza norte de México. Gaceta de Economía, 6(11), 237-262.

Havranek, T. & Kokes, O. (2015). Income elasticity of gasoline demand: a meta-analysis. Energy Economics, 47, 77-86. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2014.11.004 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2014.11.004

Ibarra Salazar, J. & Sotres Cervantes, L. (2008). La demanda de gasolina en México: el efecto en la frontera norte. Frontera Norte, 20(39), 131-156. https://doi.org/10.17428/rfn.v20i39.998

Ibarra Salazar, J. & Sotres Cervantes, L. K. (2022). Fluctuaciones en el precio y demanda de la gasolina en la frontera norte de México. Frontera Norte, 34, https://doi.org/10.33679/rfn.v1i1.2287 DOI: https://doi.org/10.33679/rfn.v1i1.2287

Jansen, D.-J. & Jonker, N. (2018). Fuel tourism in Dutch border regions: are only salient price differentials relevant? Energy Economics, 74, 143-153. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.05.036 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.05.036

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Leal, A., López-Laborda, J. & Rodrigo, F. (2009). Prices, taxes and automotive fuel cross-border shopping. Energy Economics, 31(2), 225-234. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2008.09.007 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2008.09.007

Leal, A., López-Laborda, J. & Rodrigo, F. (2010). Cross-border shopping: a survey. International Advances in Economic Research, 16(2), 135-148. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11294-010-9258-z DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11294-010-9258-z

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Moshiri, S. (2020). Consumer responses to gasoline price and non-price policies. Energy Policy, 137, Artículo 111078. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.111078 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.111078

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Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616

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Sistema de Información Económica. (s. f.). Tipo de cambio para solventar obligaciones denominadas en moneda extranjera (Serie del 01/07/2020 al 20/07/2020) [Conjunto de datos]. Banxico. Recuperado el 20 de julio de 2020, de https://www.banxico.org.mx/tipcamb/tipCamMIAction.do?idioma=sp

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Published

2026-06-22

Issue

Vol. 27 (2026)

Section

Articles
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Author Biographies

Jorge Ibarra Salazar

Mexican. Ph.D. in Economics from Southern Methodist University (SMU). Professor in the School of Economics at the Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León (UANL), professor emeritus in the Department of Economics at Tec de Monterrey, and visiting professor in the Department of Economics at SMU. Research interests: border economics, decision-making under risk, fiscal federalism, economic regulation. Recent publication: Ibarra Salazar, J. & Sotres Cervantes, L. K. (2022). Fluctuaciones en el precio y demanda de gasolina en la frontera norte de México. Frontera Norte, 34.

Rafael Navarro-Aguirre

Mexican. Ph.D. in Economics from the UANL. Professor in the School of Economics at the UANL and at the Facultad Libre de Derecho de Monterrey. Research interests: econometrics, applied microeconomics, and forecasting models. Recent publication: Ibarra Salazar, J., Salazar Cantú, J. J. & Navarro Aguirre, R. (2023). Cohesión social y satisfacción con la colonia: estudio en comunidades urbanas de ingreso medio-bajo. Estudios Demográficos y Urbanos, 38(1), 163-206.

José Guillermo Guzmán-Segura

Mexican and Costa Rican. Master’s degree in data science from the University of Leeds. Professor at Tec de Monterrey. Research interests: subjective well-being, labor economics, and econometrics. Recent publication: Guzmán Segura, J. G. & Quezada Garza, P. F. (2025). Determinants of labor informality in Mexican metropolitan areas. Estudios Demográficos y Urbanos, 40, 1-26.

José Roberto González Bisteni

Mexican. Master’s degree in philosophy from Tulane University. Full professor at Tulane University and Bard Early College New Orleans. Research interests: issues related to metaphysics and aesthetics in the works of Plato and Aristotle.
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