The fuel consumption increase in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua

  • Thomas M. Fullerton Jr
    tomf@utep.edu
    University of Texas at El Paso.
  • Gabriel Muñoz Sapien
    gabriel.munoz@uacj.mx
    Universidad Autónoma de Ciudad Juárez.
  • Martha Patricia Barraza de Anda
    mbarraza@uacj.mx
    Universidad Autónoma de Ciudad Juárez.
  • Lisbeily Domínguez Ruvalcaba
    ldoming@uacj.mx
    Universidad Autónoma de Ciudad Juárez.
Keywords: Gasoline consumption, border economics.

Abstract

This research analyzes short–run gasoline consumption dynamics in Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, México. Parameter estimation is carried out using linear transfer function arima analysis. This market is of interest because it is influenced by regional, national, and international economic conditions due to its location on the border with the United States. Explanatory variables that satisfy the significance criterion include the real price of gasoline in Ciudad Juárez, the price of gasoline in Ciudad Juárez relative to that charged across the border in el Paso, Texas, USA, and formal sector employment in Ciudad Juárez. Out–of–sample simulations indicate that the model is relatively accurate for forecasts of to 1 to 24 months into the future.

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Published
1-July-2012
Section
Articles
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Thomas M. Fullerton Jr
Department of Economics & Finance, University of Texas at El Paso.
Gabriel Muñoz Sapien
Departamento de Economía, Universidad Autónoma de Ciudad Juárez.
Martha Patricia Barraza de Anda
Departamento de Economía, Universidad Autónoma de Ciudad Juárez.
Lisbeily Domínguez Ruvalcaba
Departamento de Economía, Universidad Autónoma de Ciudad Juárez.