Integración económica en América del Norte: lección de la experiencia de la Unión Europea para el TLCAN
Economic integration in North America: Learning from the experience of the European Union for the NAFTA
https://doi.org/10.21670/ref.2009.19.a06
Palabras clave:
Sincronización económica, integración económica avanzada, cointegración, ciclo comúnResumen
En el presente documento se analiza, con base en estudios de diversos autores, el grado de sincronización económica de los países de Europa Central y Oriental con respecto a la Unión Europea en el periodo inmediato anterior a las adhesiones del año 2004. Posteriormente, se determina de manera formal el grado de sincronización económica en América del Norte para el periodo de transición del TLCAN. En particular, se estiman modelos de cointegración y características comunes de corto plazo para los pibs de Canadá, México y Estados Unidos. Encontramos que las economías de la región han alcanzado un grado significativo de integración. Con base en estos resultados, y a los hechos identificados para el caso europeo, se esbozan las posibilidades de una evolución del TLCAN hacia una integración económica más profunda.Abstract In this document we analyze, based on previous work from various authors, the degree of economic synchronization between Central and Eastern European countries and the European Union prior to the 2004 adhesion treaties. Then, we formally determine the degree of economic synchronization in North America for the nafta transitional period. In particular, we perform cointegration and common features tests for the gdps of Canada, Mexico and the US. We find that the economies of the region are highly integrated. Based on these results, and the facts identified for the European case, we discuss some possibilities for the evolution of nafta into a deeper form of economic integration.
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