Cross Border Business Cycle Impacts on the El Paso Housing Market

Gokce Kincal; Thomas M. Fullerton, Jr; James H. Holcomb; Martha Patricia Barraza de Anda

doi:10.21670/ref.2010.22.a02

Autores/as

Gokce Kincal Harvey Economics.
Thomas M. Fullerton, Jr University of Texas at El Paso.
James H. Holcomb University of Texas at El Paso.
Martha Patricia Barraza de Anda Universidad Autónoma de Ciudad Juárez

Palabras clave:

fronter, fluctuaciones económicas, mercados de vivienda fronterizas

Resumen

Existe relativamente poca evidencia empírica sobre el impacto de las fluctuaciones económicas transfronterizas en mercados de vivienda metropolitanas ubicadas en límites internacionales. Este estudio considera los impactos potenciales de condiciones económicas en México sobre ventas de casas mono–estructurales previamente construidas en El Paso, Texas. La evidencia sugiere que estos efectos suelen ser importantes. Para poner a prueba esta hipótesis, se emplean datos de frecuencia anual del University of Texas at El Paso Border Region Modeling. Los resultados econométricos indican que la evidencia empírica sólida de tales vínculos económicos transfronterizos es mínima.

Abstract

There is comparatively little empirical evidence regarding the impacts of cross border business cycle fluctuations on metropolitan housing markets located near international boundaries. This study examines the impacts of economic conditions in Mexico on sales of existing single–family houses in El Paso, Texas. Anecdotal evidence suggests that these impacts are fairly notable. Annual frequency data from the University of Texas at El Paso Border Region Modeling Project are used to test this possibility. Results indicate that solid empirical evidence of such a linkage is elusive.

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